Primary Trends
Average aluminium prices rose from $2,004 a tonne in January 2021 to $2,934 a tonne in October 2021, up 62 % from October of the previous year ($1,806 a tonne), according to World Bank data. From January to July 2021, China bought 1.5 million tonnes of aluminium from abroad, up 52% from the same period in 2020. In currency terms, imports were over $3.3B. over the entire seven-month period, more than double the value of the same period in 2020 ($1.6B.). In November 2021, an explosion occurred at an aluminum plant in Yunnan Province. This has led to the complete shutdown of the 300,000-ton capacity plant, further exacerbating the shortage of supply in the market.
The United States, the world’s largest importer of aluminum, has also increased purchases this year. From January to September 2021, the U.S. imported 2.9 million tonnes of the metal, up 4.5% from shipments during the same period in 2020. In currency terms, imports rose 47% to $7.8B.
Aluminum exports by countries
Last year, global aluminium exports reached 24 million tonnes, the same as the previous year. Over the past decade, total exports have grown at an average annual rate of +1.5%. In value terms, aluminium exports fell from $47.9B. in 2019 to $44.7B in 2020 (IndexBox estimates).
The most important shipments came from Canada (2.9 million tons), Russia (2.7 million tons), United Arab Emirates (2.2 million tons), India (2.1 million tons), Malaysia (1.5 million tons), Australia (1.4 million tons) , Norway (1.1 million tons), Bahrain (800,000 tons), the Netherlands (700,000 tons), South Africa (600,000 tons), China (600,000 tons) and Mozambique (500,000 tons), accounting for 70% of total exports. Germany (488,000 tonnes) is well behind the leaders.
In value terms, Canada ($5.5B.), the United Arab Emirates ($4.3B.) and Russia ($4.2B.) were the countries with the highest export levels in 2020, together accounting for 31% of global exports. This is followed by India, Malaysia, Norway, Australia, Bahrain, the Netherlands, China, South Africa, Germany and Mozambique, which together account for 41%.
The average export price of aluminum in 2020 was US$1,847 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of -7.5%. There are significant differences in average prices between major exporting countries. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Norway ($2,367 per ton), while Russia ($1,568 per ton) had the lowest.
Prediction
Global aluminium prices have continued to rise throughout the year due to strong demand and supply concerns, especially as aluminium production has been affected by the power crisis in China, India and elsewhere this year, with an average annual price will increase of 6% in 2022 expected , but aluminium prices will ease in the future as energy constraints dissipate.
